This article was written by Zhihu "milk package"
In China, the problem has one imperative: more regulation and more.
2018 just into May, the country issued regulatory policy, the number of more than 115.In April alone, in a variety of national real estate control policies will total up to 33 times, with 25 cities issued policies to Hainan, Beijing, Hangzhou and other cities has issued numerous real estate developments.
Why the panic type intensive regulation?Because this is a reality:We are unique in the world as a way to counter the economic law.
Such effects are obvious:Once the failure, the real estate collapse would directly lead to the collapse of bubble economy in China;Once successful, all mankind will rewrite economics textbooks, including "Das Kapital".
(a) How do we go to the current situation?
The inescapable question is:How did we go to this when they are on the line, unable to reverse the situation?
Because the human economic development of the law:All of the economic problem could be to blame for the debt problem.From a macro perspective, the debt problem reflected in the national economy of the three major sectors: government, enterprises, residents.Among them, the government and the corporate sector's debt and leverage years of stubbornly high, a high risk of collapse.Drawn up so as to reduce both the debt and leverage, there came wave upon wave of plus lever and now this wave of deleveraging.Plus, who's the lever?Plus the residents of the lever.To Who's the lever?Go to the government and state – owned enterprises of the lever.This is a massive debt transfer process, the implementation has a very strong Chinese characteristics (other countries cannot replicate):
high real estate, the land rises to the level of government, the SOEs' control – – oriented banks, resident credit, household debt and leverage increased following higher prices in Slum monetization, implement policy cocktail – – a – days the amount of funding into the real estate, announced after 5 years of sales,Freeze liquidity – – the government and state – owned enterprises completed the task of de – leveraging, market circulation disappear, millions of millions of dollars were locked – – Super Currency Issue The problem is further hauled themselves.
Why would mention super – currency problems?This raises once again the exchange rates and prices of classic problem: keeping the exchange rate?Or keep house prices?China's huge economic size, it is almost decided by a loss of exchange and price any one would have disastrous results, therefore,Preserving exchange rates or prices in preserving this classic problem will turn to… and… the characteristics of the problem.
Obviously, printing money is unable to solve this problem, literally, in the case of Venezuela.Foreign exchange reserves of the exchange rates of currencies has been the foundation for the yuan to the currencies of the anchor.(possibly) the only effective method, only the exchange controls.However, in the 2016 – 2017 of the depreciation of the yuan, capital flight, the residents of China from 4 trillion in foreign – exchange reserves fell below $3 trillion mark for the first time;Subsequently in a strong oligopoly and a wave comparable to the Hollywood – style operation, when the renminbi depreciation expectation.But this time foreign – exchange controls, but did not become in the past is no panacea: although the value of the yuan against the dollar from 6. 9 to 6. 25, but China's reserves but only recovered less than $200 billion, but also its 2984 billion of foreign debt,Plus about $300 billion of trade surplus.While the current iPhone's $12 trillion in reserves, external debt levels have reached about 1. 8 trillion, that is to say, in fact, be able to use its foreign reserves will be a trillion.Now, with the dollar kicked off a new round of appreciation period, the RMB exchange rate has also started a seven – session losing streak, the just – released foreign exchange reserves last month than in April, reflecting a decrease of $18 billion.In this wave of dollar appreciation, if RMB exchange rate cannot be maintained in 6. 6 above, then the exchange rates depreciation expectation will come back again, but this time we have had little ammunition can be used.
On the one hand, Argentina's tragedy has served as a wake – up call, while in the other hand, in order to prevent a collapse in prices, the real estate market is huge but needs a million billion level of funding to sustain.But just at that moment, a trade war broke out.
So in foreign trade, investment, domestic demand in the troika, leaving only the domestic demand. This way. That's why on the news every day chanting the upgrade of domestic demand.However, paradoxically,Real estate as the biggest domestic demand, but occupy almost all of the other of its consumption, domestic consumption has almost become synonym of Real Estate.Thus, it would appear many fantastic scenarios: Boao forum on central bank just said that to enter the tightening cycle, but in 10 days after the announced reduction;Lian kbc6n atthe top have repeatedly underlined the room doesn't fry, Fan Gang, presented six purse.
so contradictory interests behind our policies, not only reflects the cruelty of war, also exposes a much bigger risk:Economic law of punishment, never turns personal will disappear.
(2) in the country's financial lifeline: foreign exchange, the Big Mac debt
Shares, debt, foreign exchange, Fang, these four countries is the lifeblood of the financial market.
This room is where the real estate (market).For a healthy economy, the property was not to appear in its financial transactions in the market, however, the property will be designated by the financial attribute after travelling the entire financial system – with huge energy.In this planet called Earth, only three countries had a taste of that kind of death and the enormous energy: the world economy – the top three economies in the United States, China, Japan.(In fact, many of the smaller countries tried, but because of the economy are just too small, the impact of limited.)
The U.S. subprime crisis and Japan's lost decades, finally let the Earth people gave a big boost to this evoked comparisons to the killing of tyrants energy possessed by the destructive power.And now, everybody's concerns that China is now the super – bubble, which can be regarded as the world economy to what sequela.
Stock market won't say it, say more tears welling to her eyes, almost 4,000 mark for the starting point of the journey is the lever of the inventory of the memo.
Only the currency and bond markets will be really huge volumes of our Solar System.
"First of all, the currency markets, exchange markets of a currency relative to another currency, usually with an explicit way to denote that the consent of both sides of the exchange relationship), the foreign – exchange trading volume exceeds the sum of all other financial transactions.For example, daily global securities market at about $300 billion, while the daily trading volume of nearly $6 trillion.Single countries or economies of currencies always determines the survival and development.
It is worth noting that, in this wave of yuan exchange rates fluctuations behind, there's not only China, in the quiet operation and prevent the exodus of foreign exchange, the U.S. () also has been in a stronger and more deadly strategic: When the trade war in the first round of sanctions after the success of ZTE, the U.S. will play an important role of the initiative,The dollar index has actually fallen, forcing RMB toappreciate passive appreciation.While in the U.S. trade mission to Beijing a few days before, suddenly start appreciating dollar index.This appears to be abnormal as the abnormal operation of the device in which the strategic layout in fact from 2016 to 2017 it has existed for some time,Exchange rate and trade war of the binding depth, stereoscopic, mating table of shrinking the Fed rate hike, every step seems to be a simple ordinary operation, are actually hidden behind was murderous.
And from the size of the existing trade war, "The situation is very grim.When Trump fired the first shot – for – tat trade war when the nation over the boiling, and even the Ministry of Commerce officials and economists are saying soybean, automobile, however, when the U.S. request to ZTE after the lifting of sanctions, officials and economists almost all shut up, leaving only the national champions continued at the boil.At this time, people had a gradual awakening seemingly pulled hatred all day, every day the president of a tweet, actually has a more sophisticated and long – term strategic layout.Through the trade war in the U.S. dollar index. DXY was a strategic maneuver, forcing the yuan at first, especially now the dollar index suddenly lift, wherein the financial rewards of lethality, but in the run – up to the boiling of the contending nations in submerged and invisible, few people really recognize the yuan's exchange rate is back and bigger crisis.
There is an interesting fact is that, when the U.S. delegation to China after the first round of negotiations, we cannot know the real contents of the negotiations, only in the British "Financial Times" reported that the U.S., we don't even know what this really does is actually broke down;Subsequently, the media was only issued in Washington over reports that the offer is too high.while the first round of negotiations result in:Open imported cars market, open up the market, has been shut out of the highpass – Datang joint venture, is also the speed of light.Eye on the unapologetic shout, but the body is really honest.
Seeing all this in the shoes to ask Japan's debt problems, so keep banging on that content of the individual.
First for under Japan's debt problems.Most of Japan's debt is domestic debt – holders are Japanese nationals, and ultra – low inflation in the welfare of the new policy environment, the Japanese savings rate is even higher than the Chinese, as Japan's debt holders, Japanese nationals would dump government bonds in a run of an extremely low possibility that the Japanese government.Meanwhile, Japan has the world's largest overseas asset, as well as Japan's high – tech industries and strong industrial strength, both as to its debt guarantee.
As for the U.S. debt, not to mention, first of Global Treasury issuance, but almost never does not exist a debt crisis.In fact, in Manhattan, New York has one of the famous debt clock, the real – time update of the United States total public debt, and every American family to be borne by the amount.
However, it is difficult to imagine that such debt Zhong appear in China, because it is caused by the hidden crisis which could exceed the debt crisis itself.We should say that Chinese local government debt (debt) crisis, which is a wave during the period of deleveraging.In early 2014, it had topped $24 trillion, which has ballooned into Germany's GDP.And now, including local government debt and investment debt including the debt total has reached 76. 01 trillion yuan, which is full of local debt has reached 22. 22 trillion.
The greater problem is the hidden debts of local governments.And especially the last three years, local governments borrowed by the PPP, the government purchase of services, the government investment fund and the like is formed in such a manner that a lot of hidden debt, its volumes have exceeded even managed to ensure the explicit debt.continuous rapid expansion of local debt makes everyone shiver, 2016 Oct that State Council promulgate the "regulations on local government debt risk contingency plans," said:"Local government debt is directly responsible for repaying the debt, implement the no – bailout principle kbc6n."
This is also the first time since the founding of kbc6n not bottoming the policy, no kbc6n of credit guarantee,Local governments reliance on land sales on the economy even further out of the vicious circle.So in recent years all the provinces and the revenues from land sales and rising and booming of the income from the sale of the black hole's local government debt, but still looked a little pale.In fact, revenue from 2017kbc6n deserved in 36 areas across the provinces (with the exception of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), with just six provinces and municipalities directly under the central government's fiscal surplus, the surplus amounting to about $3 trillion, while the other 31 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government's fiscal deficit was 5 trillion and a total breakthrough;Wherein this fiscal gap had reached as high as 2 trillion.
In the long term continuous running at a rate of development, current local government debt has reached a very dangerous 22 trillion.March 2018 at the Ministry of Finance Circular on 2018 local government debt management notification "is set in the total amount of local debt ceiling, 2018 limit is approximately 21 trillion.April, Xinjiang is a representative of a plurality of PPP projects in the provinces has been halted.The first seems to come.
There is also a class of debt also thought – provoking.In all first – class industry, first is the debt of banks, the second silver of the non – financial, debt – to – third of the industry?Engages in real estate.April 2018, a real estate company's overall debt ratio of 79%, near record highs of the past 13 years.Wherein nearly 20 companies whose debt exceeded 85%, 84% of Vanke's debt – service ratios, also a record for the company's record.Actually, currently have even his own mother didn't know was the sky – high housing prices, developers are also very worried, especially in Evergrande, Wanda's overseas investments after the event, after killing the King of the Monkeys sensationalistic formula of strong under the supervision of asset transfer path are severely limited.While these highly leveraged asset of RMB, faces from time to time by the winding – up of risk.
(3) "freezing" with the property tax
2018 of the real estate market, is said to be a chaos of Huansheng, lot of wonders can even make the "Das Kapital" in the relations of production, production resources, market price – – are out of the failure, if the writer can reach out across time and space to now, perhaps a great number of content are to be rewritten.In the author's writing Das Kapital in the course must have studied Dutch tulips to hype the event, however, any one of the last 400 years, frying the madness of tulip bulbs (then a rare tulip bulbs may be any regions of the Netherlands in exchange for the house, luxurious decoration) + permanent property,I'm afraid not enough for the author's understanding in today's Beijing or Shanghai, people in the eyes of desire and anxiety.Do you really think this production is to be understood that the degree of mismatch of resources?
2018, queuing, queuing, the wagging – number, increasing lending rates, rob people, etc. and seemingly battle scene of chaos, but there is a clear message:Entering the market.
The signal from the highest layer, and being, full of good intentions: the current real estate market, an inch, let out.
Why?At present because of the risk through the continuous accumulation, have become extremely unstable and highly dangerous.Here, the following could be said that a happy twist type of comedy the reallooks like "refugees":
2018, April 21, and Hainan as well as the whole of the 20 – year real – estate boom, is a historic moment: for Hainan's provincial regulations on vehicle purchases, the so – called seckill may be prior to all regulatory: non – resident of the province for a five – year social insurance, 70 percent down – payment, be restricted to five years.Instantly, the 700 – billion – dollar Real funds hedged.Meanwhile, Hainan province, a broker with scrambling to migrate to the North Sea and in Yunnan, which were known as the Chinese real estate industry refugees.This item was to put the international free trade port of the "Florida of China", but is not free to buy and sell houses.Free?Trade?Non – existent.It can also determine the name of international free trade port?The long as saying Hainan is a martyr, with experts saying the stock market is to eliminate circulation.
"Sister, Tonight I don't care about humans, I'm only thinking of you".Haizi, who is it?For decades, that makes us the most concern, only prices.In household assets in real estate is already up to 70 percent more today for first – tier cities accounted for 85 per cent) has been reached, almost nobody can accept falling house prices, negative equity is a man – eating, the Japanese people eat it, eat the Hong Kong people, but also eaten in mainland China.Everybody would like to enjoy a "sleep economy", lay asleep could allow the prices to earn money.However, is it?How many people can earn that money?
For sixteen years, from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have risen by up to 20 times, but the country's GDP rose by less than 7 times.The price of china's current market capitalization has exceeded 430 trillion is the GDP of 2.5 times the global average (twice), is a broad measure of money supply M2 of 2. 5 times of that of the reserve currency of 15 times, is the currency of 45 times.It is no exaggeration to say, to sell to any city from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, almost – – to buy American.That is so high that the total market capitalization, once there is a real – estate speculation and investment now courtesy of an early departure, the entire estate would quickly collapse: 430 trillion market capitalization, and only a 5 percent sell – off, that's 21. 5 trillion of capital outflows, equivalent to almost all of our foreign exchange reserves.This is the news in the microporosity from occurring, and to prevent systemic financial risks'.How to prevent?Direct liquidity freeze, an inch, let out.
In a market that is not sold or the price never see how a real profit, with property stocks to cash out than more difficult.Are you sure you can become 5 percent of the money and run?
Seeing all this There are shoes that referred to property taxes and how to hedge investment for a problem, which is very typical of the problem.
First of all, this uniform was named China's property prices. The Big One, has been in a house – of – state.Why is that?Because it was a really lethal weapons in prices before the killing, possibly even some people get killed.
A reference comparator is south korea.Roh Moo – hyun of the Republic from 2005 Comprehensive Real Estate Tax Law of the People "s Republic of China on Enterprises with Foreign Investment and Foreign Enterprises" began, the government has spent the last five years, three former presidents and been sent to prison.Still, the move still drew angry with the richest, and ultimately led to Mr. Roh midnights in Beijing and is abandoned.Subsequently, after Lee Myung – bak midnights route until 2017 of the Moon, formerly at the Blue House, Roh Moo – hyun, who served as a secretary), South Korea's ruling only route back on midnights.Mr. Moon "- – during the real estate", which directly specifies the second suite of tax to 50 per cent, while the third suite of transactions may be intrinsic to 60%.So tough policies against the real estate market, let Han drama seemingly sky – high house prices in Seoul – – less than one – third of Beijing.
Also in East Asia, is also against the real estate market, but prices decline but someone's house prices.Then, the same bloody property tax or regulatory policy is really implemented in China?Absolutely not.This comes to pass through with a sword stabbed a property tax, but that is over 66 years from 1948 to 1949 the founding of the People's Republic of China on the eve of a hefty tax was 14 per cent are unable to suppress skyrocketing housing prices.Then in 1952, the country's territory, the Ministry of Construction issued a direct levy transaction tax of 200% of the Non – Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the moment they blew a saute of prices of a speculator, the success of curbing house prices.So, history has taught us, the haste, actually have a reason.
(4) of the real estate financial games
For everyone concerned to preserve the asset, which belongs to the beholder of the problem, because in the current environment, even the wise members do not necessarily see wisdom.But there is a problem, everyone knows the answer:430 trillion market value of the highest prices in the universe, can ruin what's in it.
The chairman of icbc, said in a speech recently, 2010 – 2017 growth in residents with disposable income from 25. 4 percent in 2007 to 12 per cent, according to the U.S..Meanwhile, household debt as a percentage of GDP rose to 49 per cent, and accounted for almost half of GDP.And what does that mean?Means of hollowing.
Such a hollowing – out may not be restricted to the real economy of the crash, the evacuation flight on a foreign – capital enterprise, but also actually occur in each of the minds of the Chinese people: such a life?
Buddha sex?Low fertility?Even in the biggest cities, many of whom also lived only ten – million – dollar house in poverty all their lives, so – called middle class killer of school districts in the room can be easily emptied the wallet of a middle – class family.Serious anxiety for many youth struggle and then quit the dream.So, Shuangjing and Guomao Xujiahui these homes from a million to tens of millions?
Many shoes have alluded to the real estate belonging to the industrial and infrastructure investment,However, when the property was given financial attribute is, that's all changed.At this time, the prices would become a veritable financial game.
May this new law has been the most New Deal Yan Zi Guan, can actually good demonstration of real estate of the original sin.For a current up to 100 trillion of funding, which is mainly invested in only three: stocks, bonds, real estate.At this time, the stock market have been the first to say this pot wouldn't back, why?Have a look now at the bottom and be further pain in the A – shares will know, has nothing to do with the amount able to speak of; therefore, obviously, not too much new money into the stock market.What makes it worse in the bond market, the upcoming crackdown is almost always in crisis, capital inflows and it is not possible.At this time, the real estate and his head, after a long time until I really tear up at the decision to say: I'm to blame?
Briefly, the amount of the game is like this:
Residents of the deposit,Giving money to banks to purchase financial institutions – – banks and institutions will be lent to developers – – got to get the money back to buy the expensive – to – product director will be sold to residents – – more money through the pipe as the flow of funding – – got to get more loans – – with higher levels of government land shootingSold to developers – – got higher prices sold to residents
In this forward circulation of financial chain, can be clearly seen on the wool.So, you take this money into concrete brick double that sold you the game should be called what?Property monetization?Ponzi scheme?The cash?No, this is not political correct mantra doesn't.But the country back into the process that a certain type of happening, and its deteriorating.
Don't underestimate 5 months for the new rules, which would be likely to further accelerate the centralization of the real estate market, a leading real estate enterprise valuation.However, the presence or absence of risk?There is a possibility.
If the tube in the funding of the new rules the enforcement process, and that has a ripple effect, pierce the debt bubble, then the entire monetary system will face a sharp contraction.In this extreme case, all of the assets in the short term, including the real estate.That is to say,Once the new rules for the botched, so that you're going to come out of those who live in large is by monetizing the debt (QE) was a Chinese version;Once you choose to monetize this trick, then in due course of RMB which is to say, not right now the renminbi.
So in this latest wave of operations there. What are the risks?By now the real economy of the truth as well, we can see some signs.Only in April, the country's defaulted bonds reached 16, involving up to 130 billion yuan.Than in recent years, a pace that is dense to the frightening.At the same time, the recent A – heads are also problematic, since the appearance of a large variety of different names of the listed company due to overdue, relates to the shareholders' shares are frozen or being judicial auction.In particular, Dunan Group of 450 billion yuan in debt crisis because of a funding of only 12 billion yuan of bonds issued by failed, become the last straw that broke the camel's back, causing the Chinese Top 500 enterprise capital chain rupture.- and this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Why just a few months, there has been such an intense wave of defaults?Because the 2018 ushered in the peak of corporate bond repayment, 2018 is good on the debt by 2016 of 4. 3 times.
In the primary, by 2018, with enterprise debt seems to be a queue of thunder.A spike in defaults are large, they encounter tens of thousands of people and the fate of the big bang.Whether asset – light industry, heavy industry, cultural enterprises, or enterprises, are fed up with these wheel capital big ebb.
The only thing that's strong, it seems the only real – estate prices.So, according to the script and rhythm, make all the people I've been scared of real estate could still collapse, collapse of the real economy has taken the lead.Brother, I'm going to end, you are free.
If you use one word to describe by 2018, with real estate, "to sacrifice their time to space ".Plain said, is to try to drag.This is all part of the strategy for the final points.So, do we have enough time to defuse the huge super – bubble?If an external force factors suddenly deflate?
(5) The maniac Trump
Far in the other side of the ocean of Trump, with a smile.As the only country to enjoy the "sleeping after income" of leaders, the shatterer of Trump has subverted all can be said of the outlook, China's diplomacy in the international political figure model, no. That's a model that is capable of corresponding thereto.
Trump even changed the America in which both sides of the traditional:Historic democratic dang is president in charge of economic profit, then the president of the republic dang things everywhere have often fought with the money, then ran out of money after continuing to let the dang democracy came to earn money.On 10 May, the Congressional Budget Office says the United States in April to a record maximum monthly budget surplus of $214 billion from the previous year, the 1968 record highs.Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for the first time since 2000, and fell to 4% or less.Therefore, Mr. Trump in the polls as the New year's also not surprising.This points out the problem is this: Since Trump and declare a trade war with china, we are hostage to those of soybean, automobile, constituency, which is a problem, Mr. Trump is not the core problems, that is to say, the operation of Mr. Trump, is the larger and more far – reaching of the chess game.
And that was all we tweet all day, everywhere, drawing hatred of the President, know much about?Overturn to the tradition of Mr. Trump, is said to be beyond all experience.Great leader warned us: empiricism killed people over there.
In the latest trade war, why China's past shopping experience failure mode?Because the U.S. with a very serious signal: reciprocal.Chinese translation of the "reciprocal", American "primarily to peer – to – peer".In order to keep the Chinese off the wrong impression, Mr. Trump – who even uttered the word mirror (mirror), and it may be said to be diligent.In the first round of negotiations, the U.S. Open ended direct financial service market touches bottom of such requirements.Why is that?Because he knows you won't meet.Why a water hawkish U.S. delegations to submit their request?Because he knew your weakness (far) more than a ZTE.In fact, the United States whom a request is made in tariffs, market access, intellectual property issues on a full reciprocity.Wherein, one of the interesting requirements of the U.S. is also presented on the Internet with all – round way, which had just been through the audit turmoil of this answer, really is very comical.
Practically speaking, if there is no American high – tech and intellectual property exchanges and help China's industrial upgrading and the 2025 plan is difficult to realize.So, China's?Despite not insignificant, which said the vast majority of exports of products, and loss is not acceptable),We are the most important core chips is the nature of our own: China will be the future of the world's biggest consumer market upgrade.This is the U.S. market capacity will be indivisible.
However, the most distressing is that the upgrade of the consumption market is facing an urgent problem: real estate.
while its consumption is extremely shrunk, a much – needed housing situation of the super – bubble;While he is willing to sacrifice their time to space, off for as long as the real – estate bubble.The core issue of the timing and grasp, Trump is the accuracy and speed;Lian estimated that Americans didn't think about that a lot of Chinese patriots, who were just falling house prices in their hopes of an american president.
Chinese delegation heading to America for another round of negotiations before the Friday night of the CSRC suspended IPO has become a special signal, which is at the implications of not just for A – shares fell after the comfort, but also for the second round of negotiations next week of a hedge and prevention.Prevent what?Prevention may (again) broke down.
Before going further, we can see how people in the current high housing prices and property bubble mentality.For most people, this mentality is very complicated, but on the whole,The most winning mentality is fluky psychology.
This is fluky psychology, let a lot of people think the real estate bubble and collapse we're all yelling for more than a dozen times, no or only a gustatory enjoyment but?Such psychological and eat a tenth Bao Bao after the front nine is redundant, psychological, and ignored the cumulative effect of presence.Both had turned up for twenty years, so it doesn't rise again over the years, huh?In fact, in all financial markets, the obvious risk of blindness, is often seen before the collapse of the last stage.
In the mind – numbing.First of all in the constantly being cut chives on the young people, and they should be the "main force in China 2025 plan, this should be our most important in trade negotiations.However, the reality is that?To tell you a joke: the classroom suddenly flew in a bee's, then said to the teacher, students test of our time here, whether you look at the flowers of the motherland.however, that the bees would fly out the window, the teacher is perplexed, the classmate said to a chorus of:Teacher, we are the fatherland of leek.
Real estate super – bubble that has caused a serious misallocation of resources, hollowing out industrial upgrading and development of technology in the foundation.If even after 14 becomes a leek, and who can be qualified to talk about what the future?
All of your life and not have to wait until after buying, so your life without planning.
The just – released financial data display, 4 months showed that China's large drop of 1.32 trillion yuan, its biggest monthly decline in history.At the same time, the market credit demand remains strong, with new loans of 1.18 trillion yuan, a growth melt 1. 56 trillion yuan, far exceeding the credit increase residents' deposits increased.This still occurs in the central bank may cut the reserve requirement by 100 basis points after the data, there is no visible reduction in funding shortfall has been changed, a reduction in the release of funds and no access to bank deposits.So come on, where is everybody?Or real estate.
This is what we in the upcoming second round of negotiations when the reality of life: on the one hand, a large amount of money in real estate speculation (idling) fields, the days leading to the amount of funds deposited by the concrete jungle, as the cash pool of real estate has become a financial black hole, the central bank to release more money too, didn't have that, money has formed the passivation effect.On the other hand, ZTE will shut down at domestic products off their shelves in the Japanese market which had been ordered to deliver.
It's so clear is the fact that we have noticed, Mr. Trump wasn't so?
(6) are by no means limited to no money, no room
In China, the tragedy, there are two, one, I have no money for a house.
If the two don't have any?Is society'll abandon you?Ah, come on, even the society no one knows who you are.
It's not a joke. It's a joke, this is pure and simple reality.It is said that in the first – tier cities is no such thing as a non – negotiable part of the suite, if there's two.Others said world 99% of everything can be solved, then the rest of the 1%?I needed more money.
As super – currency funding pool of real estate, this is 1%.Over the past decade, the U.S. currency in circulation in a 2 – fold increase in the amount of currency in circulation in China has increased 20 – fold.If there is no real – estate fund pool, our confidence that inflation would be unthinkable.Mr. Ma said, eight years after the house, such as scallions.The country people believe this prophecy, What?8 years after the onion root will buy and buy expensive suites like?
If the bubble burst, and was a super currency would lead to increased inflation, Mr. Ma of the prophecy will become another version of the cruel reality.
static economic theory from the point of view,Industrial upgrading is to defuse the crisis, but it is a painful but unavoidable,This is also the proposed kbc6n room doesn't fry of final destination, can be said that this vision is sane and good.Only a martyr like abandoned real estate economy where it needs to be reborn.It's like God gave you shut the door, opening a window.However, why we do not have to cross this window?Because the continuously over – capacity of days the amount of money has made China one of the economy has become a huge state of puffiness – er, it's stuck.
U.S. trade war attack target, this fatso.If the first round in the U.S. use of conventional weapons is ZTE event, then, in the second round in the United States has begun to use strategic weapons.What is this weapon?Is oil.
On 8 May, Mr. Trump in the White House announced that the United States of America is withdrawing from a nuclear deal with Iran, and harsh sanctions against Iran.Smart you will see it this way.Yes, Iran is the birthplace of ZTE event, and this time, Mr. Trump directly presented a threat: to do business with any Iranian banks and businesses fail within the specified period of time (3 ~ 6 months) to release the engagement with Iran is the association, will be met with U.S. sanctions.Soon, the French oil major has proposed or would withdraw from the Iranian South Pars gas field project, valued at about $48 billion euro project is a European consortium of Iranian investment.That also shows that Europe has neither resolve, nor strength to prevent the arrival of U.S. sanctions.Then, after exiting the Europeans, who will take over the project?In petroleum.
China is the largest buyer of Iranian crude oil, Iran was China's sixth – largest supplier of oil, one – third of its oil exports were sold to China.And far more than does the company exports from Iran to the point that the product has shown a drop in the bucket.An Iranian oil sector, senior government officials said, once he takes over the operation of the South Pars Gas Field, PetroChina, owned by the Bank of Kunlun made financing and trade settlement.
This trade war with China?Imply a direct confrontation.
Who is the most happy?Russia is.Recently the fire; the U.S., Russia has been a bit much, there is also an urgent need for China to bundling.Russia international affairs committee chairman, has even said that China will continue its purchases of Iranian oil, while the United States will not use the Chinese company listed on the sanctions list.However, the lockout is still in the ZTE reminds us, of such sanctions is no laughing matter.In fact, in the last round of sanctions against iraq, CNPC's oilfield development of equipment procurement and transportation of difficulties encountered in the oilfield generators, compressors, etc., are key instruments, as well as the production technology is controlled by the U.S. and Europe, once the United States for further sanctions, the severity of the consequences will far exceed the ZTE event.At the same time, to the European market for export of large quantities of Chinese equipment manufacturers will also be roped in.
this trade war will lead us to where now also for the entire match, but one thing is for sure:It could put us on the existing economic structure so as to have a profound impact, as China's accession to the WTO brings in its wake a changed the world.
the news is often argued that the reform and opening – up brings us today's economic achievements, saying that fear of reform (review), but in this field, mainly means" the accession to the WTO, which have transformed China from a low GDP of pure high – population countries into the world's most advanced economy organizes the club,The full enjoyment of the economic globalization and the development of the speedway.That's what we're from the once – marginal range is today the world's second – largest economy, is a really simple idea: if one fails, one of the world's richest countries to do business, how to become wealthy?Even the Soviet Union had been hoodwinked into heaven of Vietnam and also wanted to understand this problem, efforts in the reform our rapidly (especially the paperweight in the reform of the system).In fact, China the relocation of many foreign companies have gone on to Vietnam, and even now already placed Vietnam on the international economic rise of the sound.
So, why is this not – for – tat trade through the WTO to solve?Some said that the United States not respect Chinese, some said that because many of China's WTO entry commitments remain unfulfilled.Seems to me it makes sense, then, why does the united states this way?Because the United States does not recognize China as a market economy, the EU also does not recognize China as a market economy.
That is why we have not had the pleasure of Mr. Trump said a trade war with china, because the war was long before that a bunch of idiots to lost.That is, Trump thinks that the US has been in Sino – US trade.News in the latest trade war is the core of the U.S. to contian China 2025 is, in fact, Mr. Trump want is far less than, the abnormality determination and resolute.Ironically, the latest trade war has had a unique way, reached last year in China has been shouting of slogans:Cutting overcapacity.But we manage, in a way that the price reduction of overcapacity, but the latest trade war is a real market – based reduction of overcapacity.
Trade wars, interest – rate increases, and shrinkage of the table, the rise in the dollar, these unavoidable external factors in the great disturbances that plague the big fatso.
Late on May 11, the central bank released "In the first quarter of 2018 China's monetary policy implementation report", in which the central bank for the first time the Crown"Macro – leveraged stabilised"Of the judgment.And what does that mean?Mean wind direction is changing.From the "deleveraging" to the "lever", a single word, a world of difference.If deleveraging is representative of a monetary policy tightening, so the lever is wary of the game involved, and compared with the prior art, before the drop quasi just sprinkle water.
However, the real – estate reservoir already fills with water, then drain it of levee failure risk.So, where we also could make the point about the water?It seems the only domestic demand, which means that consumption is going up in price, that is, the usage of said expanding domestic demand.This was essentially a matter for the inflation of the rhythm.And this is superimposed, is imported inflation, comes from?It is from the above mentioned Mr. Trump's Oil Strategy:By imposing sanctions on Iran, the name of the game.
Don't you think that higher prices will only affect their driving if they are paying more for oil, industrial production and food processing and raw material, whereby it will drive many commodities, the price, such price hikes will eventually be reflected in retail prices of commodities and daily necessities, and consumers will therefore pay a lot of cost,This is the so – called "imported inflation".In 2007, the price of crude oil rose to $147 a barrel, the result is caused the domestic serious inflation, with prices rising sharply, seriously affecting the living standards and domestic economic development;In order to hedge this wave of inflation when the central bank raising interest rates six times and raised the reserve requirements ratio to harsh manner.However, just as a result of this wave of central bank operations on the real estate market also had an immediate effect: at the time of the real estate industry and large parts of the lockout, house prices downwards and linearly, like Shanghai, the price of a dozen consecutive month of decline, the highest and as much as 35 percent on the news are basically used to describe the collapse in the market at that time.
Epilogue:
By this still fresh in our memory of history, we can see two points:
One is the drop in house prices is not going to be a legend is impossible, but to see whether someone who is willing to go down.
Second, prices of imported inflation has a devastating, if Trump's Iran strategy so that the rise in oil prices to above $80 a barrel, beyond the reach of any one or more of the problems from falling real – estate prices, could have prepared something else.
