Project Evaluation, Sample Cost Benefit Analysis
英国留学paper范文 The CBA shows that the Tennent Dam is likely to expand the net resources (consumption) in society and so add to economic welfare.
For use by students as a guide to their major assignment.
This is an example of a assignment which would be sufficient for a good pass to credit grade.
Introduction/Executive Summary
This Cost Benefit Analysis values the impacts (costs and benefits) of Tennent Dam in economic terms (ie impact on society’s welfare). These values are aggregated over time (22 years) using the discount rate (5%) which shows society’s trade off between current and future consumption. The discounted impacts are then compared using the decision criteria of Net Present Value which measures the extent to which the benefits of Tennent Dam exceed its costs. The aggregate NPV of Tennent Dam is estimated as $46 million in 1998 dollars. Significant uncompensated costs are experienced by those using the Murrumbidgee River.
译文：
介绍/执行摘要 英国留学paper范文
本成本效益分析评估了 Tennent 大坝在经济方面的影响（即对社会福利的影响）。 这些值使用贴现率 (5%) 随时间（22 年）汇总，该贴现率显示了社会在当前和未来消费之间的权衡。 然后使用衡量 Tennent Dam 的收益超过其成本的程度的净现值的决策标准来比较折现的影响。 以 1998 年美元计算，坦能大坝的总净现值估计为 4600 万美元。 使用 Murrumbidgee 河的人经历了巨大的未补偿成本。
Contents
Introduction
Describe the proposal
Background
What is the problem?
What are the objectives?
What are the alternatives?
Identify the impacts (costs and benefits) 英国留学paper范文
Value the impacts (costs and benefits)
Discounting (aggregating over time)
Decision criteria
Sensitivity analysis
Distribution
Conclusion
Bibliography
Abbreviations
ACTEW Australian Capital Territory Electricity and Water Corporation
CBA Cost Benefit Analysis
GL Gigalitre (1 billion litres)
LMWQCC Lower Molonglo Water Quality Control Centre
ML Megalitre (1 million litres)
Description of the proposal
Background
The ACT has several rivers (Cotter, Gudgenby, Molonglo, Murrumbidgee). Only two of these are used to supply water for urban use. These are the Cotter river with an annual flow of 152GL of which 64GL is divertible and the Queenbeyan river with an annual flow of 114GL of which 49GL is divertible. In a typical year extraction (diversion) is 60 GL. The Cotter river provides 48GL and the Queanbeyan river 12GL from four dams with a total storage capacity of 212GL (Cotter 5GL, Bendora 11GL, Corin 76GL, Googong 125GL). 英国留学paper范文
Water use is divided into residential 70%, government 16% and industry 2%. Around 33GL of waste water is released per year to the Molonglo River from the Lower Molonglo Water Quality Control Centre (LMWQCC). The balance of 27GL goes to evaporation, ground water or (via the storm water system) to rivers.
The surface flows of water through the ACT’s water supply and treatment system are summarised in the materials balance diagram below. The diagram demonstrates that water extraction has downstream impacts on water flows and quality.
What is the problem?
Canberra and Queenbeyan have a growing population which demands an increasing supply of water. ACTEW’s (Australian Capital Territory Electricity and Water Corporation) current water supply system is expected to meet its water supply capacity limit in 2015 when the population supplied reaches 408,000 (CIE 1997:11).
What are the proposal’s objectives?
Ensure plentiful, low cost and clean water for consumption in Canberra and Queenbeyan. Supply an extra capacity of 40GL pa by 2015 and by 2030 be supplying an extra 140,000 residents. The objectives are summarised in the Logframe given below. 英国留学paper范文
What are the alternatives?
The main alternatives are:
Build a new dam (Coree or Tennent)
Treat and reuse waste water.
LMWQCC recycling
Water mining sewer system with small scale plant.
No expansion of water supply (falling per capita consumption).
The Tennent dam has been selected because it is the lowest cost option and the only option capable of suppling sufficient water. This is shown in the table below.
Falling per capita consumption is the base case (“without project” option) against which the Tennent Dam is compared in the CBA.
译文：
提案说明 英国留学paper范文
背景
首都领地有几条河流（Cotter、Gudgenby、Molonglo、Murrumbidgee）。其中只有两个用于为城市供水。这些是年流量为 152GL 的 Cotter 河，其中 64GL 是可分流的，以及 Queenbeyan 河，年流量为 114GL，其中 49GL 是可分流的。在一个典型的年份提取（转移）是 60 GL。科特河从四个大坝提供 48GL 和昆比延河 12GL，总蓄水能力为 212GL（Cotter 5GL、Bendora 11GL、Corin 76GL、Googong 125GL）。
用水量分为住宅 70%、政府 16% 和工业 2%。每年约有 33GL 的废水从下莫隆洛水质控制中心 (LMWQCC) 排放到莫隆洛河。 27GL 的余额用于蒸发、地下水或（通过雨水系统）流入河流。
通过 ACT 供水和处理系统的水的地表流量总结在下面的材料平衡图中。该图表明，取水对水流和水质具有下游影响。
问题是什么？
堪培拉和昆比恩的人口不断增长，需要更多的水供应。 ACTEW（澳大利亚首都直辖区电力和水务公司）目前的供水系统预计将在 2015 年供应的人口达到 408,000 时达到其供水能力限制 (CIE 1997:11)。
提案的目标是什么？
确保为堪培拉和昆比恩提供充足、低成本和清洁的水。到 2015 年提供 40GL pa 的额外容量，到 2030 年将额外供应 140,000 名居民。目标总结在下面给出的逻辑框架中。
有哪些选择？
主要的替代方案是：
建造一座新水坝（Coree 或 Tennent）
处理和再利用废水。
LMWQCC 回收
带有小型工厂的采水下水道系统。
没有扩大供水（人均消费量下降）。
选择 Tennent 大坝是因为它是成本最低的选择，也是唯一能够供应充足水的选择。这显示在下表中。
人均消费下降是 CBA 中比较 Tennent 大坝的基本情况（“无项目”选项）。
Cost Effectiveness Analysis
$ million per ML GL pa
Tennent 4 41
Coree 7 22
LMWQCC recycling 8 18
Water mining 28 23 英国留学paper范文
Present value cost of supplying 1 ML of treated water each year for 20 years. Includes capital costs and the present value of 20 years of operating costs.
Note: LMWQCC is the Lower Molonglo Water Quality Control Centre. Water mining is the use of small scale water treatment works which are attached to the sewer mains. (CIE 1997:31)
译文：
成本效益分析
百万美元/ML GL pa
坦能 4 41
科里 7 22
LMWQCC 回收 8 18
水开采 28 23
每年供应 1 毫升处理水的现值成本，持续 20 年。 包括资本成本和 20 年运营成本的现值。
注：LMWQCC 是下莫隆洛水质控制中心。 水开采是使用连接到下水道总管的小型水处理厂。 (CIE 1997:31)
Describe the proposal
The Tennent dam proposal is the construction and operation of a dam, water treatment works, pump station and pipeline to Canberra. It is proposed to be built in the ACT’s Nass and Gudgenby catchment which is 66,250 ha of which 87% is in conservation reserves. It will flood 548 hectares of degraded grazing land (CIE 1997:29).
Construction will begin in 2010 and be completed in 2014. Tennent Dam will hold 151GL and yield on average 40GL pa. Dam height will be 76m and the top water level will be 655m above sea level. It will be 4.5 km south of Tharwa. 英国留学paper范文
Canberra water consumption from Tennent Dam of 1 GL will begin in 2015 (when the current supply system capacity is reached). This will expand to the maximum of 40 GL pa by 2030. Actual consumption will vary considerably due to weather conditions. The consumption levels used in the analysis are the recent average consumption per person multiplied by the increasing population.
| Logframe: Summarising Tennent Dam Project Design | ||||
| Narrative Summary | Measurable Indicators | Means of Verification | Important Assumptions | |
| Goal: (sector or program objective)
Increase the welfare of Canberra & Queenbeyan |
Net present value | Cost benefit analysis report | Goal to Super Goal
|
|
| Purpose: (aim or impact)
Water consumption
Externality damage waste water pollution |
End of Project Status
• extra 40 GL water consumption by 2030 • extra 140,000 residents • ambient pollution downstream |
• ACTEWmarket price • ABS popn stats • Annual SoE report contingent valuation
|
Purpose to Goal
• water quality standards met. |
|
| Outputs: (deliverables or terms of reference)
• dam. • water treatment plant. • pipeline. • pumping station.
Externality damage: erosion |
Terms of reference for each output• 40 GL capacity pa by 2014. • ambient pollution downstream. |
• End of project report
market prices (asset) • Annual SoE report |
Output to Purpose
• consumption per resident is constant • water price acceptable • urban design unchanged. |
|
| Activities: (key clusters or work breakdown structure)
• Environmental Impact Statement • Construct dam, water treatment plant & pipeline • Operate dam, water treatment plant & pipeline
Externality mitigation: • sediment traps etc |
Inputs: (budget, people, material, time, cost)
• labour, • materials • land • river water
|
• EIA submitted
• Project budget market prices
|
Activities to Output
• EIA accepted • Technology is feasible • permission for water extraction granted. • Construction standards met. • Externalities are acceptable. |
|
| Conditions Precedent
Government approval |
||||
The relationship between the project’s inputs and outputs (cause and effect) is summarised in the Logframe table above.
译文：
描述提案 英国留学paper范文
Tennent 大坝提案是建设和运营大坝、水处理厂、泵站和通往堪培拉的管道。该项目拟建在首都领地的 Nass 和 Gudgenby 流域，该流域占地 66,250 公顷，其中 87% 位于保护区内。它将淹没 548 公顷退化的牧场（CIE 1997:29）。
施工将于 2010 年开始，并于 2014 年完工。Tennent Dam 将容纳 151GL，平均每年产量为 40GL。坝高76m，最高水位高于海平面655m。它将位于 Tharwa 以南 4.5 公里处。
1 GL Tennent Dam 的堪培拉耗水量将于 2015 年开始（当达到当前供应系统容量时）。到 2030 年，这将扩大到 40 GL pa 的最大值。实际消耗量将因天气条件而有很大差异。分析中使用的消费水平是最近人均消费量乘以不断增长的人口。
| Logframe: Summarising Tennent Dam Project Design | ||||
| Narrative Summary | Measurable Indicators | Means of Verification | Important Assumptions | |
| Goal: (sector or program objective)
Increase the welfare of Canberra & Queenbeyan |
Net present value | Cost benefit analysis report | Goal to Super Goal
|
|
| Purpose: (aim or impact)
Water consumption
Externality damage waste water pollution |
End of Project Status
• extra 40 GL water consumption by 2030 • extra 140,000 residents • ambient pollution downstream |
• ACTEWmarket price • ABS popn stats • Annual SoE report contingent valuation 英国留学paper范文
|
Purpose to Goal
• water quality standards met. |
|
| Outputs: (deliverables or terms of reference)
• dam. • water treatment plant. • pipeline. • pumping station.
Externality damage: erosion |
Terms of reference for each output• 40 GL capacity pa by 2014. • ambient pollution downstream. |
• End of project report
market prices (asset) • Annual SoE report 英国留学paper范文 |
Output to Purpose
• consumption per resident is constant • water price acceptable • urban design unchanged. |
|
| Activities: (key clusters or work breakdown structure)
• Environmental Impact Statement • Construct dam, water treatment plant & pipeline • Operate dam, water treatment plant & pipeline
Externality mitigation: • sediment traps etc |
Inputs: (budget, people, material, time, cost)
• labour, • materials • land • river water 英国留学paper范文
|
• EIA submitted
• Project budget market prices
|
Activities to Output
• EIA accepted • Technology is feasible • permission for water extraction granted. • Construction standards met. • Externalities are acceptable. |
|
| Conditions Precedent
Government approval |
||||
项目的输入和输出（因果）之间的关系在上面的逻辑框架表中进行了总结。
This shows that the project has a logical relationship between:
- inputs(labour, land, materials etc) which are used in :
- project activities(environmental impact statement; construction of dam, treatment plant, pump & pipeline; etc) to produce a set of:
- outputs(physical infrastructure of dam, & other plant) to achieve the project’s:
- purpose(increased water consumption) which achieves society’s:
- goal(increased welfare of Queenbeyan and Canberra residents).
The Logframe describes the project’s impacts in the Narrative Summary column. These are ranked according to the causality of the project. The Measurable Indicators column quantifies how the impacts will be measured. The Means of Verification column shows where the measurement information will be sourced and in italics indicates the valuation technique that will be used in this CBA. These include market prices, shadow prices and contingent valuation. 英国留学paper范文
The Logframe summarises the assumptions which underpin the logical relationship between inputs and outputs. These assumptions (shown in the final column) are important for determining what can go wrong with the project and therefore the issues that should be included in risk or sensitivity analysis. These include the possibilities of misvaluation of water, construction cost overruns, falls in per capita water consumption and higher environmental costs.
For the CBA of Tennent Dam the Logframe identifies the costs as construction and operation of the dam, pipeline, pump and treatment plant plus the downstream environmental damage. Benefits are identified as increased water consumption.
译文：
这表明该项目之间存在逻辑关系：
- 投入（劳动力、土地、材料等）用于：
- 项目活动（环境影响报告；大坝、处理厂、泵和管道的建设；等）产生一套：
- 输出（大坝和其他工厂的物理基础设施）以实现项目的：
- 实现社会的目的（增加用水量）：
- 目标（增加昆比恩和堪培拉居民的福利）。
Logframe 在叙述摘要列中描述了项目的影响。这些是根据项目的因果关系排列的。可衡量指标列量化了如何衡量影响。验证方法列显示了测量信息的来源，斜体字表示将在本 CBA 中使用的估值技术。这些包括市场价格、影子价格和或有估值。
Logframe 总结了支撑输入和输出之间逻辑关系的假设。这些假设（显示在最后一栏中）对于确定项目可能出现的问题以及风险或敏感性分析中应包含的问题非常重要。其中包括错误估价水、建设成本超支、人均用水量下降和更高的环境成本的可能性。
对于 Tennent Dam 的 CBA，Logframe 将成本确定为大坝、管道、泵和处理厂的建设和运营加上下游环境破坏。好处被确定为增加用水量。
Identify the impacts (costs and benefits)
The project directly uses up (in construction and operation) a set of resources (labour, materials, land and water) which the project makes unavailable for other uses (ie an opportunity cost to society).
There are some indirect impacts on the environment from both the construction and operation of the project. The environmental impacts include reduced water flows, erosion, habitat loss (trees & aquatic), waste water etc. 英国留学paper范文
The project creates resources in the form of extra water for human consumption in Canberra and Queenbeyan.
These impacts are presented in the impact chart below.
The stakeholder table below lists the stakeholders involved in the project. Understanding which groups are involved in the project, their point of view and objective is an important check on the costs and benefits identified in the impact chart above.
It also provides an input into the incidence chart (Planning Balance Sheet).
| Stakeholder | Point of view | Objective |
| ACT Government (decision-maker)
英国留学paper范文 |
State | • maximise social welfare of ACT plus Queenbeyan
• increase dividends from ACTEW |
| ACTEW | Company | increase sales and profits |
| Farmers | Individuals | profits, way of life |
| Recreationalists | Individuals | consumption, preservation of environment |
| Water consumers | Individuals, companies, govt agencies | consumption |
| Construction firms | Company | profits |
| Local community | Individuals | quality of life |
The incidence table (or Planning Balance Sheet) below summarises the costs and benefits of the stakeholders involved in the project. Examining the seven stakeholder groups identified (note some groups will overlap) it is clear that the farmers, recreationalists and local community will lose access to environmental assets and the water consumers will gain more consumption. 英国留学paper范文
| Tennent Dam: Incidence of costs and benefits | ||
| Participant group | COSTS | BENEFITS |
| Water consumers | water bill | water consumption (flow) |
| Local community | • habitat loss
• reduced & degraded river flows |
|
| Farmers | • lost output (flow)
• lost land (capital) |
land price |
| Recreationalists | lost recreation | |
| ACTEW | resources used in operation | • productive assets (capital)
• increased sales & profit |
| Construction industry | Resources used | Revenue from construction |
| Government | Resources for expansion of complementary infrastructure | Dividends from ACTEW |
Entries in italics are only financial impacts. Other entries are economic (real) impacts.
译文：
确定影响（成本和收益） 英国留学paper范文
项目直接消耗（在建设和运营中）项目无法用于其他用途的一组资源（劳动力、材料、土地和水）（即社会的机会成本）。
项目的建设和运营均会对环境产生一定的间接影响。环境影响包括水流量减少、侵蚀、栖息地丧失（树木和水生）、废水等。
该项目以额外水的形式为堪培拉和昆比恩的人类消费创造资源。
这些影响列在下面的影响图表中。
下面的利益相关者表列出了参与项目的利益相关者。了解哪些群体参与了项目、他们的观点和目标是对上述影响图表中确定的成本和收益的重要检查。
它还为发生率图表（计划资产负债表）提供了一个输入。
| Stakeholder | Point of view | Objective |
| ACT Government (decision-maker)
英国留学paper范文 |
State | • maximise social welfare of ACT plus Queenbeyan
• increase dividends from ACTEW |
| ACTEW | Company | increase sales and profits |
| Farmers | Individuals | profits, way of life |
| Recreationalists
英国留学paper范文 |
Individuals | consumption, preservation of environment |
| Water consumers | Individuals, companies, govt agencies | consumption |
| Construction firms | Company | profits |
| Local community | Individuals | quality of life |
下面的发生率表（或计划资产负债表）总结了参与项目的利益相关者的成本和收益。检查确定的七个利益相关者群体（注意一些群体会重叠），很明显农民、休闲爱好者和当地社区将无法获得环境资产，而水消费者将获得更多的消费。
| Tennent Dam: Incidence of costs and benefits | ||
| Participant group | COSTS | BENEFITS |
| Water consumers | water bill | water consumption (flow) |
| Local community | • habitat loss
• reduced & degraded river flows |
英国留学paper范文 |
| Farmers | • lost output (flow)
• lost land (capital) |
land price |
| Recreationalists | lost recreation | |
| ACTEW | resources used in operation | • productive assets (capital)
• increased sales & profit |
| Construction industry | Resources used | Revenue from construction |
| Government | Resources for expansion of complementary infrastructure | Dividends from ACTEW |
斜体条目仅表示财务影响。其他条目是经济（实际）影响。
Value the impacts (costs and benefits)
A.Costs
-
Dam, water treatment plant and pipeline
Reason:
The resources used in the construction and operation of the dam, water treatment plant and pipeline will not be available for other uses and therefore there is an opportunity cost to society.
Basis:
The resources used in the construction and operation of the dam, water treatment plant and pipeline will be purchased in competitive markets where prices are a good estimate of economic value. Therefore these costs are valued at market prices.
The construction costs are assumed to be evenly spread over the period 2010 to 2014. The 1160 hectares of land lost to agricultural production is valued at $555 per hectare and included in the construction cost. Rerouting the road to Namadgi would cost $2.5 million and is included in construction costs. 英国留学paper范文
Operation costs of the dam and bulk supply main per annum are constant. The operating cost of the water treatment plant and the pumping station vary with the amount of water extracted. It is assumed this rises with projected population growth from 1GL in 2015 to full capacity of 40GL in 2031.
All values are in 1996 dollars.
Value:
Construction
Dam $58 million
Water treatment plant $42 million
Bulk supply main $18.8 million
Pumping station $5.8 million
Operation
Dam $168,200 pa
Water treatment plant $26/Ml 英国留学paper范文
Bulk supply main $54,520 pa
Pumping station $44/Ml
Source: CIE 1997:31.
-
River Water
Reason:
The water extracted from the Gudgenby and Naas Rivers is a resource which will not be available for other uses.
Basis:
There is not a market for river water in the ACT and therefore no direct market price is available. Two valuation methods are used below. Firstly a government set price for river water is adjusted (shadow priced) to a competitive market price. Secondly ACT residents willingness to pay for the environmental benefits of healthy ACT rivers is estimated by a survey (contingent valuation). 英国留学paper范文
Value:
Shadow price
In NSW and Victoria a bulk water price is charged by the State governments for extraction of river water. In Victoria this was set at $4.50/Ml in 1994/95 and is expected to rise to $7.00/ML and in NSW it is $0.79/Ml (Cox & Baxter 1996:51). These are not competitive market prices because there is a government monopoly on the supply of river water. It is likely that these governments are not exercising their market power but are under charging for water in order to subsidise development. Therefore the value of water used should be set above $7.00/ML. Using the Victorian price and increasing it by 50% to account for underpricing, this would given an annual cost of $0.42 million with a water extraction of 40 GL pa.
译文：
评估影响（成本和收益） 英国留学paper范文
A.成本
-
大坝、水处理厂和管道
原因：
大坝、水处理厂和管道的建设和运营中使用的资源将无法用于其他用途，因此社会存在机会成本。
基础：
用于大坝、水处理厂和管道的建设和运营的资源将在竞争性市场上购买，其价格可以很好地估计经济价值。因此，这些成本按市场价格计算。
假设建筑成本在 2010 年至 2014 年期间平均分配。农业生产损失的 1160 公顷土地价值为每公顷 555 美元，并包含在建筑成本中。改道通往 Namadgi 的道路将耗资 250 万美元，并包含在建筑成本中。
大坝和大容量供应干线每年的运营成本是不变的。水处理厂和泵站的运营成本随抽取的水量而变化。假设随着预计人口从 2015 年的 1GL 增长到 2031 年的 40GL 满负荷，这一数字会上升。
所有值均以 1996 年美元计算。
价值：
建造
大坝 5800 万美元
水处理厂 4200 万美元
大宗供应主力 1880 万美元
泵站 580 万美元
手术
大坝 $168,200 元
水处理厂 $26/Ml
大宗供应主要 $54,520 pa
泵站 $44/ml
资料来源：CIE 1997:31。
-
河水
原因：
从古根比河和纳斯河提取的水是一种不可用于其他用途的资源。
基础：
首都领地没有河水市场，因此没有直接的市场价格。下面使用两种估值方法。首先，将政府设定的河水价格调整（影子定价）为具有竞争力的市场价格。其次，ACT 居民愿意为健康的 ACT 河流的环境效益付费是通过一项调查（或有估值）来估计的。
价值：
影子价格
在新南威尔士州和维多利亚州，州政府对抽取河水收取大宗水价。维多利亚州在 1994/95 年设定为 4.50 美元/毫升，预计将升至 7.00 美元/毫升，而在新南威尔士州则为 0.79 美元/毫升（Cox & Baxter 1996:51）。这些不是具有竞争力的市场价格，因为政府垄断了河水的供应。很可能这些政府并未行使市场支配力，而是在收取水费以补贴发展。因此，使用的水的价值应设置在 7.00 美元/毫升以上。使用维多利亚时代的价格并将其提高 50% 以解决定价过低的问题，这将导致每年的成本为 42 万美元，水提取量为 40 GL pa。
Contingent valuation.
Another method of valuing the river water extracted by the dam is to value the impact of reduced flows on downstream users. A contingent valuation survey of ACT residents found that they were willing to pay $45 more per year per household for their water to avoid a severe reduction in river flow. They were willing to pay $5 per household per year to avoid the destruction of some habitat of each uncommon species (CIE 1997:viii). Using 100,000 households and the loss of habitat for the Smokey Mouse and Heath Monitor, this would give an annual cost of $5.5 million.
A.Benefits
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Processed water
Reason:
The river water is transported and cleaned to increase the consumption of people in Canberra and Queenbeyan. New goods are created.
Basis:
Water provision in Canberra and Queenbeyan is a government owned monopoly service by ACTEW. The price charged to residential customers in Canberra in 1996-97 was $0.309/KL up to 350 KL pa and $0.721/KL for over 350 KL pa (ACTEW 1996:1). Therefore $0.721/KL is the marginal price of water and best represents the value of water produced by the Tennent Dam. 英国留学paper范文
Value:
At this price the maximum supply from Tennent of 40GL is valued at $12 million pa.
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Residual value
Reason:
At the end of the period of the project assets remain. These still have a use in society.
Basis:
Market value of the capital assets should reflect the future profits earned by those assets. This can be estimated as the sum of the discounted future net benefit (profits) of the project. Residual value is estimated by aggregating over 60 years the unchanged (from 2030) net benefit of the project ($20 million pa) using an annuity factor of 18.678.
Value:
Residual value is $371 million in 2031 present value or $75 million in 1998 present value.
译文：
或有估值。 英国留学paper范文
另一种评估大坝抽取的河水的方法是评估流量减少对下游用户的影响。一项针对首都领地居民的临时估价调查发现，他们愿意为每户家庭每年多支付 45 美元的水费，以避免河流流量严重减少。他们愿意每年为每户家庭支付 5 美元，以避免破坏每个不常见物种的一些栖息地（CIE 1997：viii）。使用 100,000 个家庭以及 Smokey Mouse 和 Heath Monitor 栖息地的丧失，这将导致每年 550 万美元的成本。
A. 好处
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处理过的水
原因：
河水被运输和清洁，以增加堪培拉和昆比恩的人们的消费。新商品被创造出来。
基础：
堪培拉和昆比恩的供水是由 ACTEW 政府拥有的垄断服务。 1996-97 年，堪培拉向住宅客户收取的价格为 0.309 美元/KL 至 350 KL pa，超过 350 KL pa 的价格为 0.721 美元/KL（ACTEW 1996：1）。因此，$0.721/KL 是水的边际价格，最能代表 Tennent 大坝生产的水的价值。
价值：
以这个价格，来自 Tennent 的 40GL 的最大供应价值为每年 1200 万美元。
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剩余价值
原因：
在项目期末资产仍然存在。这些在社会上仍然有用。
基础：
资本资产的市场价值应反映这些资产未来赚取的利润。这可以估计为项目的贴现未来净收益（利润）的总和。残值是通过使用年金系数 18.678 对 60 年来未改变的（从 2030 年起）项目的净收益（每年 2000 万美元）进行汇总来估算的。
价值：
2031 年现值的剩余价值为 3.71 亿美元或 1998 年现值的 7500 万美元。
Discounting (aggregating over time)
The costs and benefits identified and valued above accrue over the period 2010 to 2030. In order to make comparisons with other projects these future values need to be expressed in present day values.
Discounting future values back to present values requires information about society’s rate of time preference or the amount of future consumption they require in order to be willing to give up current consumption. This is revealed in the capital market where interest payments represent the reward for giving up current consumption for future consumption. Interest rates also include a reward for risk taking and inflation. Risk is not relevant to this project because it is part of a broad investment portfolio of the government where risk in any single project is cancelled out by the other projects. Inflation is not relevant because all values used in this CBA are in real terms. 英国留学paper范文
Risk is removed by using Commonwealth Government bonds which have a very low risk of default. The longest maturity (10 years) is used because this is closest to the project’s 32 year time frame. In October 1997 the Commonwealth 10 year Treasury Bond interest rate was 5.96% pa (RBA 1997:S93). Inflation measured by the average CPI for the four quarters ending September 1997 was 0.7% pa (RBA 1997:S109). Taking the inflation rate away from the interest rate and rounding gives the real rate of interest as 5%. The table below applies this discount rate (using each year’s discount factor) to the values identified.
译文：
折扣（随时间累积）
上述确定和估值的成本和收益在 2010 年至 2030 年期间累积。为了与其他项目进行比较，这些未来值需要以当前值表示。
将未来价值折现回现值需要有关社会时间偏好率或他们愿意放弃当前消费所需的未来消费量的信息。这在资本市场中得到了体现，利息支付代表放弃当前消费以换取未来消费的回报。利率还包括对冒险和通货膨胀的奖励。风险与该项目无关，因为它是政府广泛投资组合的一部分，其中任何单个项目的风险都被其他项目抵消。通货膨胀无关紧要，因为本 CBA 中使用的所有值都是实际值。
通过使用违约风险非常低的联邦政府债券来消除风险。使用最长期限（10 年）是因为它最接近项目的 32 年时间框架。 1997 年 10 月，英联邦 10 年期国债利率为 5.96% pa (RBA 1997:S93)。以截至 1997 年 9 月的四个季度的平均 CPI 衡量的通货膨胀率为 0.7%（RBA 1997：S109）。将通货膨胀率从利率中取出并四舍五入得出实际利率为 5%。下表将此贴现率（使用每年的贴现系数）应用于确定的值。
Economic Costs and Benefits of Tennent Dam, 1998 $’000
| Year | water consumed GL | Dam1 | Water treatment plant1 | Bulk supply main1 | Pumping station1 | Total market costs |
River water cost |
Environmental cost | Water consumption | Residual value | Net benefit | discount factor | Present value of net benefit | ||||||||
| 2010 | 11600 | 8400 | 3760 | 1160 | 24920 | -24920 | 0.5303 | -13215 | |||||||||||||
| 2011 | 11600 | 8400 | 3760 | 1160 | 24920 | -24920 | 0.5051 | -12587 | |||||||||||||
| 2012 | 11600 | 8400 | 3760 | 1160 | 24920 | 英国留学paper范文 | -24920 | 0.4810 | -11987 | ||||||||||||
| 2013 | 11600 | 8400 | 3760 | 1160 | 24920 | -24920 | 0.4581 | -11416 | |||||||||||||
| 2014 | 11600 | 8400 | 3760 | 1160 | 24920 | -24920 | 0.4363 | -10873 | |||||||||||||
| 2015 | 1 | 168 | 26 | 55 | 44 | 293 | 11 | 5500 | 720 | -5083 | 0.4155 | -2112 | |||||||||
| 2016 | 4 | 168 | 95 | 55 | 161 | 479 | 39 | 5500 | 2640 | -3378 | 0.3957 | -1337 | |||||||||
| 2017 | 6 | 168 | 165 | 55 | 279 | 666 | 67 | 5500 | 4560 | -1673 | 0.3769 | -630 | |||||||||
| 2018 | 9 | 168 | 234 | 55 |
396 |
853 | 95 | 5500 | 6480 | 33 | 0.3589 | 12 | |||||||||
| 2019 | 12 | 168 | 303 | 55 | 513 | 1039 | 123 | 5500 | 8400 | 1738 | 0.3418 | 594 | |||||||||
| 2020 | 14 | 168 | 373 | 55 | 631 | 1226 | 151 | 5500 | 10320 | 3443 | 0.3256 | 1121 | |||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | 168 | 442 | 55 | 748 | 1413 | 179 | 5500 | 12240 | 5149 | 0.3101 | 1597 | |||||||||
| 2022 | 20 | 168 | 511 | 55 | 865 | 1599 | 207 | 5500 | 14160 | 6854 | 0.2953 | 2024 | |||||||||
| 2023 | 22 | 168 | 581 | 55 | 983 | 1786 | 235 | 5500 | 16080 | 8559 | 0.2825 | 2418 | |||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | 168 | 650 | 55 | 1100 | 1973 | 263 | 5500 | 18000 | 10265 | 0.2697 | 2769 | |||||||||
| 2025 | 28 | 168 | 719 | 55 | 1217 | 2159 | 291 | 5500 英国留学paper范文 | 19920 | 11970 | 0.2569 | 3076 | |||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | 168 | 789 | 55 | 1335 | 2346 | 319 | 5500 | 21840 | 13675 | 0.2441 | 3339 | |||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | 168 | 858 | 55 | 1452 | 2533 | 347 | 5500 | 23760 | 15381 | 0.2314 | 3559 | |||||||||
| 2028 | 36 | 168 | 927 | 55 | 1569 | 2719 | 375 | 5500 | 25680 | 17086 | 0.2232 | 3815 | |||||||||
| 2029 | 38 | 168 | 997 | 55 | 1687 | 2906 | 403 | 5500 | 27600 | 18791 | 0.2151 | 4043 | |||||||||
| 2030 | 40 | 168 | 1040 | 55 | 1760 | 3023 | 420 | 5500 | 28800 | 19857 | 0.2070 | 4111 | |||||||||
| 2031 | 40 | 168 | 1040 | 55 | 1760 | 3023 | 420 | 5500 | 28800 | 523658 | 390771 | 0.1989 | 77737 | ||||||||
| Total | 60859 | 51750 | 19727 | 22300 | 154636 | 3938 | 93500 | 270000 | 523658 | 388840 | 46059 | ||||||||||
| Total PV | 28798 | 22717 | 9334 | 6971 | 67821 | 996 | 27220 | 68309 | 104172 | 46059 | |||||||||||
- Construction (2010-2014) and operating costs (2015 onwards).
Decision criteria
Cost Benefit Analysis values the impacts (costs and benefits) of Tennent Dam in economic terms (ie impact on society’s welfare). These values are aggregated using the discount rate which shows society’s trade off between current and future consumption. The discounted impacts are then compared using a decision criteria.
There are three criteria commonly used in CBA. There are two ratios. The benefit cost ratio takes the present value of total benefits and divides this by the present value of total costs. A ratio greater than 1 is a net benefit to society. Using the Tennent Dam estimates from the table above the PV of total benefits divided by the PV of total costs is $142m/$96m. This gives a cost benefit ratio of 1.5. 英国留学paper范文
The second ratio decision criteria is the Internal Rate of Return which is the discount rate which equates the present value of costs and benefits. It is similar to a rate of profit. For the Tennent Dam the IRR is 8%. The third decision criteria is the Net Present Value (NPV) this is simply the amount by which the present value of benefits exceed the present value of costs. For the Tennent Dam NPV is $46 million in 1998 dollars.
| total costs PV | $96 million |
| total benefits PV | $142 million |
| Benefit Cost Ratio | 1.5 |
| IRR | 8% |
| NPV | $46 million |
All three decision criteria indicate that the project is worth supporting on economic (efficiency of resource use) grounds.
译文：
决策标准 英国留学paper范文
成本效益分析评估 Tennent 大坝在经济方面的影响（即对社会福利的影响）。这些值是使用贴现率汇总的，贴现率显示了社会在当前和未来消费之间的权衡。然后使用决策标准比较折扣后的影响。
CBA 中常用三个标准。有两个比例。收益成本比率将总收益的现值除以总成本的现值。大于 1 的比率是对社会的净收益。使用上表中的 Tennent Dam 估计，总收益的现值除以总成本的现值是 1.42 亿美元/9600 万美元。这给出了 1.5 的成本效益比。
第二个比率决策标准是内部收益率，它是折现率，它等于成本和收益的现值。它类似于利润率。对于 Tennent Dam，IRR 为 8%。第三个决策标准是净现值 (NPV)，它只是收益的现值超过成本的现值的量。对于 Tennent Dam 来说，1998 年的净现值为 4600 万美元。
| total costs PV | $96 million |
| total benefits PV | $142 million |
| Benefit Cost Ratio | 1.5 |
| IRR | 8% |
| NPV | $46 million |
所有三个决策标准都表明该项目在经济（资源使用效率）方面值得支持。
Sensitivity analysis
The project is sensitive to changing conditions. These could include errors in the assumption of water consumption values, construction costs, environmental costs, or population growth.
Canberra’s market for water consumption is a government monopoly which has a low rate of return to its capital. This suggests that the monopoly market price may not represent an efficient competitive market price. In order to test the impact of a price miss-specification n the conclusions of the CBA three water prices were used to estimate the decision criteria. The Base Case (most likely) was that given above which used a water price of $0.72/KL. 英国留学paper范文
The Pessimistic Case values water consumption at $0.31/kl. Most consumers use less than 350 KL per year and are charged $0.309/KL. At this price the maximum supply from Tennent of 40GL is valued at $12 million pa. This low value for water consumption (the only benefit) drives total benefits down below total cost and the NPV becomes negative, as does the IRR and the BCR fall below zero.
All three decision criteria indicate that the project is not worth supporting on economic (efficiency of resource use) grounds.
| total costs PV | $96 million |
| total benefits PV | $42 million |
| Benefit Cost Ratio | 0.4 |
| IRR | na |
| NPV | $-53 million |
Because ACTEW is a government monopoly it is possible that the price charged for water is below the efficient market price. The Optimistic Case adjusts (shadow prices) the $0.721/KL price up to $1.00/KL as an estimate of this under pricing. The higher price improves the benefits and makes the project even more beneficial. 英国留学paper范文
| total costs PV | $96 million |
| total benefits PV | $199 million |
| Benefit Cost Ratio | 2.1 |
| IRR | 6% |
| NPV | $103 million |
The sensitivity analysis shows that the project is quite robust in that it requires a substantial fall in water price to make it uneconomic.
译文：
敏感性分析 英国留学paper范文
该项目对不断变化的条件很敏感。这些可能包括水消耗值、建筑成本、环境成本或人口增长的假设错误。
堪培拉的用水市场是政府垄断的，资本回报率很低。这表明垄断市场价格可能并不代表有效的竞争市场价格。为了测试价格不符合规范的影响，使用 CBA 的三个水价的结论来估计决策标准。基本案例（最有可能的）是上面给出的使用 0.72 美元/KL 的水价。
悲观案例估计耗水量为 0.31 美元/千升。大多数消费者每年使用不到 350 KL，收费为 $0.309/KL。以这个价格，来自 Tennent 的 40GL 的最大供应价值为每年 1200 万美元。耗水量的这种低值（唯一的好处）使总收益低于总成本，NPV 变为负值，IRR 和 BCR 也降至零以下。
所有三个决策标准都表明，从经济（资源使用效率）的角度来看，该项目不值得支持。
| total costs PV | $96 million |
| total benefits PV | $42 million |
| Benefit Cost Ratio | 0.4 |
| IRR | na |
| NPV | $-53 million |
由于 ACTEW 是政府垄断，因此对水收取的价格可能低于有效市场价格。乐观情况将（影子价格）$0.721/KL 的价格调整为 $1.00/KL，作为对低于定价的估计。更高的价格提高了收益，并使项目更加有利。
| total costs PV | $96 million |
| total benefits PV | $199 million |
| Benefit Cost Ratio | 2.1 |
| IRR | 6% |
| NPV | $103 million |
敏感性分析表明，该项目相当稳健，因为它需要大幅降低水价才能使其不经济。
Distribution
Gainers and losers can are identified in the distributional incidence table give previously.
The major gains are made be the water consumers. These are paid for through water charges. The other gain is the residual value of the assets held by ACTEW. These gains are compensation for the capital costs of construction borne by ACTEW.
The resources lost to construction and operation come from the construction and other industries. This loss is fully compensated by payments to the construction and other industries. Farmers lose some of their land but will be fully compensated. The local community and recreationalists will lose access to the environment destroyed by the dam. These loses of nearly $100 million are not compensated and are the major distributional issue in the project. Raising water prices to fund a replacement recreational or environmental project would provide a means of compensating the community for this loss. 英国留学paper范文
译文：
分配
赢家和输家可以在之前给出的分布发生率表中确定。
主要收益来自用水者。 这些是通过水费支付的。 另一项收益是 ACTEW 持有的资产的残值。 这些收益是对 ACTEW 承担的建设资本成本的补偿。
建设和运营损失的资源来自建筑和其他行业。 这种损失可以通过支付给建筑和其他行业的款项来完全补偿。 农民失去了一些土地，但会得到全额补偿。 当地社区和娱乐者将无法进入被大坝破坏的环境。 这些近 1 亿美元的损失没有得到补偿，是项目中的主要分配问题。 提高水价以资助替代娱乐或环境项目将提供一种补偿社区损失的手段。
Conclusion 英国留学paper范文
The CBA shows that the Tennent Dam is likely to expand the net resources (consumption) in society and so add to economic welfare. The sensitivity analysis indicated that these conclusions are reasonably reliable. The distributional analysis shows that recreationalists and the local community lose through environmental damage and are not compensated. An ethical judgement needs to be made about compensating them.
译文：
结论
CBA 表明，坦能大坝可能会扩大社会的净资源（消费），从而增加经济福利。 敏感性分析表明，这些结论是相当可靠的。 分布分析表明，游乐者和当地社区因环境破坏而蒙受损失，没有得到补偿。 需要做出道德判断来补偿他们。
Bibliography 英国留学paper范文
ACTEW (1996) Schedule of charges and general conditions of supply 1996-97, ACTEW, Canberra.
Centre for International Economics (1997) A study to assess environmental values associated with water supply options, ACTEW Corporation, Canberra.
Cox W & Baxter P (1996) Setting the cap. Report of the independent audit group, Murray-Darling Ministerial Council, Canberra.
Reserve Bank of Australia (1997) Bulletin, December.留学生ESSAY代写
更多代写：Algorithm 算法作业 Cs Midterm代考 英国留学论文 留学生ESSAY代写 Course paper 代写 代写澳洲留学生assignment多少钱
