**ASSIGNMENT # 3 **

**ASSIGNMENT # 3**

**Decision Analysis**

**Decision Analysis**

决策分析课业代写 ADM2302 students are reminded that submitted assignments must be typed (i.e. can NOT be hand written), neat, readable, and well-organized.

ADM2302 students are reminded that submitted assignments must be typed (i.e. ** can NOT be hand written**), neat, readable, and well-organized. However, it is ok to plot Decision Tree and Project Network by hand and to SCAN/INCLUDE them within the PDF document file as long as they are placed well within the PDF document (proper rotation, readable quality, and well organized). Assignment marks will be adjusted for sloppiness, poor grammar, spelling mistakes, and technical errors. Submitted assignment solutions (if applicable) must include “managerial statements” that communicate the results of the analysis in plain language.

The assignment is to be submitted electronically as a ** single PDF Document file **via Brightspace by

**. The front page of the PDF document has to include the title of the assignment, the course code and section, and the student name and number. The second page is the SIGNED Statement of Integrity.**

**Sunday December 5 prior to 23:59**Note: *Each student must provide an individual original submission of completed Assignment #3. *

Assignment 3 is ** an individual effort. **The student must complete it individually (i.e., alone).

**Failing to do so is considered ****academic fraud. **Paying someone to assist with solving it (i.e., Tutor), or joining a group on WhatsApp/Discord seeking the answers…, or using an online service website like Chegg to find the answers to questions are considered acts of plagiarism.

**Total: 100 points **

** **

**Problem 1 (36 points) 决策分析课业代写**

**Problem 1 (36 points) 决策分析课业代写**

Claire and Matt met in Yoga class three years ago and became very close friends. This year, they graduated from university. Claire has a degree in hospitality management and Matt has a degree in social sciences. While they were searching for a job, Claire’s aunt who owns a convenience store came up with an idea of opening a small buffet next to a university campus and offered to assist them with her expertise. After many brainstorming sessions, they have identified three possible strategies. The first strategy is to hire a person and to invest in a 24 hours open buffet where they can serve all type of snacks for the students during all times. In a favorable market, they should be able to obtain a net profit of $10,000 over the next one year. If the market is unfavorable, they can lose $8000. The second strategy is not to hire a person and serve all type of snacks for the students until 7 pm. With a favorable market, they could get a return of $8000.

With an unfavorable market, they would incur a loss of $4000. The third strategy is not opening the buffet. Claire is basically a risk taker, whereas Matt tries to avoid risk.

**a)**

What type of decision criterion should Claire use? What would Claire’s decision be? Justify and show your work/calculations. (6 points)

b) What type of decision maker is Matt? What decision would Matt make? Justify and show your work/calculations. (6 points)

c) If Claire and Matt were indifferent to risk, what type of decision approach should they use? What would their decision be? Justify and show your work/calculations. (6 points)

d) What is the best option that minimizes regrets of Claire and Matt? Show your work/calculations. (8 points)

e) What would be the optimal choice for Claire and Matt if market research suggested that the likelihood of a favorable market was 0.25? Use the EMV/EP criterion. Show your work/calculations. (4 points)

f) What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) under the probabilities given in e)? Show your work/calculations. Verbally communicate the result. (6 points)

**Problem 2 (30 points) 决策分析课业代写**

**Problem 2 (30 points) 决策分析课业代写**

Road Angle Trucks recently investigated a design deficiency in the assembly of an engine of their newly launched vehicle RT-3. Truck drivers reported that the assembly had failed, causing fuel leakage and serious fire damage to the vehicle engine and engine compartment. There were instances where the fire spread outside the engine compartment and destroyed the entire vehicle.

In each instance, the driver had ample time to evacuate the vehicle.

Road Angle Trucks found two possible solutions to reduce or eliminate the fuel leakage problem.

The first is a new engine with a modified block and assembly that eliminates the fuel leakage problem. A second solution is a field modification to the existing head assemblies accomplished at their maintenance units. After a careful initial investigation, the solution team has provided the summary of their investigation listed below:

**i. 决策分析课业代写**

In case of continuing to use the vehicles in their present condition: The analysis based on the on-hand data indicates that the probability of “fuel leakage and fire” is 0.2. In Addition to that, the analysis indicates that when there is a “fuel leakage and fire”, 90% of the time ** the damage **is confined

**compartment and the repair cost is $200,000. Otherwise,**

**to the engine****can destroy**

**the damage****. The replacement cost is about $1,300,000.**

**the entire vehicle**ii. In case of replacing all the engines with brand new engines: The new engines should not manifest this particular problem but the replacement of existing engines will cost $100,000 each.

iii. In case of making a minor modification to the existing “head assemblies”: Engineers estimate that this modification would cut the probability of “fuel leakage and fire” in half. If the modified assembly fails, the results are the same as with the old assembly. This modification will be at a cost of $30,000 per head assembly.

Draw a decision tree for this problem to help Road Angle Trucks make the best decision. Solve the decision tree and determine the decision strategy that Road Angle Trucks should follow and its minimum expected cost. (Show your work/calculations). Verbally communicate the decision strategy (30 points)

**Problem 3 (34 points) 决策分析课业代写**

**Problem 3 (34 points) 决策分析课业代写**

Hillier Chapter 9, ** 9.32 **(e-book page 459). Read the problem description and answer the following questions:

a) Use the likelihoods/conditional and prior probabilities to calculate all theposteriors/revised probabilities. Show your work/calculations. (6 points)

b) Draw a decision tree for this problem that will help Western’s top management decide whether to hire Mathew and whether to have Headhunters conduct the detailed investigation process before making this decision. Solve the decision tree and determine the optimal decision strategy and its expected payoff. (Show your work/calculations). Verbally communicate the decision strategy. (25 points)

c) Now suppose that the Headhunters’s fee for administering its detailed investigative process is negotiable. What is the maximum amount that Western Bank should pay? Show your work/calculations. (3 points)